Modeling the impact of climate change on water resources components in Karkheh River Basin

Modeling the impact of climate change on water resources components in Karkheh River Basin

Water resources in Iran have in recent years experienced increasing pressures from raising demands and recurrent droughts. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting of fresh water availability are imperative. To better manage these resources, we investigated the impact of climate change on the water resources of Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid south-west of Iran. Future climate scenarios for period of 2020-2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1 version T63) for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. The study was conducted to assess water availability components in KRB using Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We found that in the northern part of KRB freshwater availability will increases while in the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. In general,there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative while other areas experience a net positive impact