The Testing Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis For EU-15 and Turkey: Structural Break Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Under Cross Section Dependency

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Investments and savings are significant macroeconomic determiners for countries to maintain their sustainable economic growth. Although investment-saving relationship is subject to many studies, Feldstein-Horioka (1980) explain the investment-saving relationship with international capital mobility. They suggest that investments will be financed with domestic savings and investment-saving relationship will be strong, otherwise there will be no relationship or the relationship will be in the low level in the case of restrictions on capital movements. In this study Feldstein-Horioka (F-H) hypothesis was tested with the new generation dynamic panel data analysis considering the structural breaks in EU-15 countries and Turkey. Unit root and cointegration tests considering the hypothesis that a macroeconomic shock in a country would affect the other countries, in other words the cross sectional dependency were implemented in this analysis. As a result of the analysis , for the countries overall a weak cointegration relationship between investment-saving series was obtained and it was found that F-H hypothesis is valid for these countries. However, it was found that the level of savings to meet investments was lower in the short term analysis.

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Feldstein , Horioka hypothesis , saving rate , investment , capital movement , cross section dependency.

Ege Academic Review (EAR)

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Ege Academic Review (EAR)