A conditional probability approach to the calculation of frequency and duration indices in composite reliability evaluation

Author

Melo, A.C.G. ; Pereira, M.V.F. ; Da Silva, A. M Leite

Author_Institution

Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Eletrica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Volume

8

Issue

3

fYear

1993

fDate

8/1/1993 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

1118

Lastpage

1125

Abstract

The authors describe a new methodology for frequency and duration (F&D) assessment in composite generation and transmission reliability evaluation. The proposed approach uses the concept of conditional probability to characterize the contribution of each component to the frequency indices, and allows the calculation of F&D indices at both system and bus level. The algorithm is easy to implement, and requires the same computational effort as the estimation of the system loss of load probability (LOLP) and the system expected power not supplied (EPNS) indices. Case studies with utility-derived systems are presented and discussed

Keywords

electric power generation; power system reliability; power transmission; probability; composite reliability evaluation; conditional probability approach; duration indices; expected power not supplied; frequency index; generation reliability; loss of load probability; transmission reliability; utility-derived systems; Coherence; Equations; Frequency; Load flow; Power generation; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Probability; System performance; Testing;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/59.260886

Filename

260886