Estimation of the derivatives of generation system reliability indices in Monte Carlo simulation

Planning and scheduling of power system operation for future loads involves extensive studies of reliability analysis and production costing to ensure secure and economical supply of electric energy. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in fine tuning the operating plans in the presence of various uncertainties. In this paper, the application of a technique known as perturbation analysis (PA) to the generation system reliability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Specifically, the PA is used to find the derivatives of some of the reliability indices. Starting with a general introduction of the Monte Carlo simulation, the power system model for the application of PA is described. This is followed by a thorough discussion of the generation and propagation of perturbations to estimate the derivatives during the chronological simulation. A numerical example is presented in which the PA derivative estimates of a 6 unit thermal system are compared to the estimates obtained from analytical methods