Evaluation of short-term wind predictability

Short-term wind predictability is the ability to foresee hourly wind energy one or several days in advance. The problem is addressed in general and the focus is on the form in which the predictability information should be given, which power models should be selected, and how to formulate the problem in a convenient perspective and approach its solution. A theory is developed to provide the basis for a quantification of the value of predictability. The concept of operational planning capacity is introduced together with some definitions and derived results. Based on these results, an algorithm to quantify the value of predictability is proposed. Numerical results illustrate the various steps of the algorithm