Parameter Identification and Dynamic Models of Socioeconomic Phenomena

A methodology is presented for developing socioeconomic models of the type formalized by Forrester. A means of including socioeconomic experts into the modeling process is suggested, and it is emphasized that such models are not scientific models but merely assemblages of expert opinion. An iterative numerical scheme based on the technique of "quasi-linearization" is described which can be used to adjust model parameters so that the model closely agrees with real data. The methodology is illustrated using a model of the socio economic system of the Lake Tahoe basin in northern California. Such a model may eventually be useful for purposes of environmental planning.