A Technique For Approximating The Capacity Outage Table Based On The Modeling Of Unit Outage Size

The capacity outage table of a power generation system is used to obtain, for any level of outage, the probability that the total system outage capacity exceeds that level. This paper proposes a novel approach to the problem of approximating the function represented by the capacity outage table. The proposed approach uses an underlying probabilistic model of unit outage sizes to predict the general form of the function. We also show the application of the approach to an important class of power systems, for which the method is used to develop a powerful technique for interpolating the capacity outage curve between two widely spaced points.