Living with uncertainty: R&D trends and needs in applying probability methods to power system planning and operation

In the electric utility industry, we can guarantee only one thing with absolute certainty: we live and work with many unknowns. Thus, the industry has embraced probability methods to varying degrees over the last 25 years. These techniques aid decision makers in planning, operations, and maintenance by quantifying uncertainty. Examples include power system reliability, production costing simulation, and assessment of environmental factors. A series of brainstorming sessions was conducted by the Application of Probability Methods (APM) Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society to identify research and development needs and to ask the question, "where should we go from here?" We examined areas of need in data development, applications, and methods for decision making. The purpose of this article is to share the thoughts of APM members with a broader audience to our findings and to invite comments and participation.<>