Prediction of overhead transmission line ampacity by stochastic and deterministic models

A probabilistic method for the prediction of overhead transmission line ampacity as a function of time of day, based on previous line loading and weather history, is described. Real-time calculation of transmission line ampacity has until now only been possible when the prevailing weather conditions were known. However, at the dispatching station, the availability of overhead line ampacity as a function of the time of day is often desired several hours in advance. The stochastic/deterministic algorithm that has been developed for this purpose is used to predict ampacity for a 230 kV line. It was also used to predict the loss of conductor tensile strength, increase of conductor sag due to creep, and infringement of conductor to ground clearance as a function of temperature and time