Capacity assistance distributions for arbitrarily configured multi-area networks

This paper presents a method of constructing a probability distribution for the capacity assistance available to a system from its neighboring interconnected areas. The proposed method is capable of dealing with arbitrarily connected networks. Additionally the method considers the correlation between area loads. A discrete joint distribution is used for the multi-area load model, and the capacity assistance distribution is constructed in the form of a joint probability distribution between the assistance levels and the load vectors. The uses of such a joint distribution matrix as a reliability analysis tool as well as an operations planning tool are described. The method is tested using the IEEE-RTS, with 3-area, 4-area, 5-area and 10-area interconnections