Observations and models of technology trends within the electronics industry

The paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher-Pry model in particular, before concluding with an attempt at producing a forecast of the rate of development of smart technology. The Fisher-Pry model is shown to fit well with an assumed ultimate microprocessor clock speed of 1-2 GHz. By combining data from multiple sources, support is found for the hypothesis that rates of development can be correlated with development activity, as measured by the number of US patents filed in specific technology areas. A forecast for the development of `smart´ technology is made to demonstrate how the models may be used to generate forecasts of future developments where limited data is available