Mathematical model for market forecasting by a technical society

The forecasting problem addressed here was undertaken as a part of the planning activity of the Publications Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). The quantities analyzed are the number of AIAA members, the number of subscribers to each of four scientific and engineering journals, and the effects of changes in dues and subscription prices. This paper is devoted to the mathematical model which was developed as a basis for the forecasts. The approach taken involved first modeling the total AIAA membership as a function of changes in membership dues and Federal RDT&E budgets. Then numbers of subscribers to each of the four journals published by the AIAA were determined as mathematical functions of total society membership and subscription rates.