A Bayesian Note on Reliability Growth During a Development Testing Program

The problem of estimating the reliability of a system which is undergoing development testing is considered from a Bayesian standpoint. Formally, m sets of binomial trials are performed under conditions which lead to an ordering, ¿1 < ¿2 < ... < ¿m, of the binomial parameters. The parameter of interest is ¿m, the final underlying reliability of the system. The marginal posterior pdf for ¿m is easily obtained when uniform prior pdf´s are assumed. The method is illustrated.