Logistic Simulation - A Credible Tool for Decision Makers?

Logistic simulation and sensitivity analyses can prove useful in management reviews of major weapon system acquistion programs. The F/A-18 analyses were instrumental in quantifying the importance of achieving projected field reliability levels, the adequacy of supply support funding, and the importance of test equipment capacity in achieving aircraft readiness objectives. Logistic simulation inputs and assumptions need to be subjected to critical examination in each application. In the case reviewed, it was found that the commonly used assumption that mean failure rates are constant values, known with certainty, introduced significant errors in prediction of operational readiness and sensitivity analysis results. The variability of mean demand has potentially far reaching implications concerning future support planning but further work is required to fully understand, characterize, model, and develop logistic support approaches that accommodate the variability. Logistic simulation has the potential to become an accepted support planning and analysis tool that will meet the new DoD management demands to quantitatively link system design and support decisions to operational readiness objectives. Further understanding of the ``real world,´´ and incorporation of this understanding in input data and modeling techniques are required if the full potential of this support planning tool is to be realized.