Multiscale Mathematical Modeling to Support Drug Development

It is widely recognized that major improvements are required in the methods currently being used to develop new therapeutic drugs. The time from initial target identification to commercialization can be 10-14 years and incur a cost in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Even after substantial investment, only 30-40% of the candidate compounds entering clinical trials are successful. We propose that multiscale mathematical pathway modeling can be used to decrease time required to bring candidate drugs to clinical trial and increase the probability that they will be successful in humans. The requirements for multiple time scales and spatial scales are discussed, and new computational paradigms are identified to address the increased complexity of modeling.