Dealing with (deep) uncertainties: focus on the strategy, not the forecast

Prediction is very difficult, particularly if it is about the future¿. This quote, attributed to Nils Bohr, holds for all forecasts and expectations on which many strategic decisions are based. While a significant body of quantitative methods knowledge has been developed for dealing with those future uncertainties that can be described adequately in probabilistic terms, relatively little attention has been paid so far to systematic approaches for dealing with so-called deep uncertainties.