Dominant trends affecting the future structure of the semiconductor industry

The object of this paper is to trace the development of the semiconductor industry itself, taking due account of economic and market factors, as well as the effects of technological change. The historical growth of the industry is described, with particular emphasis on the structural changes which stemmed from the invention of the planar process and the development of integrated circuits. The technological, economic and market trends which are likely to dominate the growth of the industry in the seventies are discussed at some length, with considerable attention being given to the integrated circuit sector, in which the rate of expansion is certain to be most rapid and where the orderly acceleration of business activity will be disrupted to a degree by the strength of the innovative forces acting. The many and diverse influences acting on the semiconductor industry are then analysed to enable forecasts to be made of changes in the future structure of the industry and of its expansion to 1980 in terms of global sales and employment.