Passive ranging of a low observable ballistic missile in a gravitational field

In this paper we present an estimation algorithm for tracking the motion of a low-observable target in a gravitational field, for example, an incoming ballistic missile (BM), using angle-only measurements. The measurements, which are obtained from a single stationary sensor, are available only for a short time. Also, the low target detection probability and high false alarm density present a difficult low-observable environment. The algorithm uses the probabilistic data association (PDA) algorithm in conjunction with maximum likelihood (ML) estimation to handle the false alarms and the less-than-unity target detection probability. The Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) in clutter, which quantifies the best achievable estimator accuracy for this problem in the presence of false alarms and nonunity detection probability, is also presented. The proposed estimator is shown to be efficient, that is, it meets the CRLB, even for low-observable fluctuating targets with 6 dB average signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). For a BM in free flight with 0.6 single-scan detection probability, one can achieve a track detection probability of 0.99 with a negligible probability of false track acceptance