Analysis and application of running time reliability based on operational data

The stops and bus roads are usually regarded as the independent units when running time reliability of public transportation is calculated. Actually the status running in previous units has a significant impact on the following operation. In order to analyze the reliability better, this paper develops and demonstrates an extended model G(N,A) for public transportation. To distinguish with the traditional model, the arcs are consisted of two kinds of links: one connects two adjacent stops and other connects the originating stop and any stops. With the popular usage of GPS devices, sufficient GPS data are used to analyze the running time reliability. Two key approaches are proposed to measure running time reliability of the corresponding arcs. According to the running time reliability, the weak road sections in the bus routes can be found and it can also be identified that if this route is able to make a timetable with high reliability. A case study of the 815 bus route connecting the downtown to the suburban areas in Shanghai is provided to illustrate the method.