Modeling Information Propagation in Chinese Microblogs Based on User Activity Influence

Nowadays, the micro blog has become one of the main platforms for information dissemination. Because the micro blog has massive users and the information is propagating in real time, the traditional information diffusion models are difficult to characterize the influence of the micro blog as a social network of communication. In this paper, two influence propagation models, namely the basic model and the discrete time model are proposed, and the probabilistic influences between users are inferred based on the user activities. The experiment using the real world data shows that the proposed models can effectively reflect the influences of communication between users in micro blog space, and predict the users´ activities.