Estimation of the influence of hospital closure using agent-based simulation

In this paper, we employ an agent-based simulation as a tool to estimate the influence of hospital closure to other hospitals in the neighborhood. In Japan, some hospitals managed by local governments face financial difficulties because of the change of medical fees, and the increase in the number of patients due to aged society. Although municipal hospitals greatly contributed to maintain Japanese health care, the role of them in the society is now changing since many private hospitals are installed to the society. Some of municipal hospitals have already been closed due to the financial crisis of the local governments that manage them. The closure or degradation of municipal hospitals can be considered in order to balance the budget of the government, however, the influence of the hospital closure to other hospitals in their neighborhood should be carefully concerned. In this paper, we first conduct a survey on medical center selection in a local city, Japan. Then we develop a decisionmaking rules based on the collected survey data. We also employ a geographical information system to show simulation results effectively.