Inversiones flexibles en el sistema de transmisión bajo incertidumbre basado en opciones reales y teoría de juegos contra la naturaleza

The progress of the power electronic devices and the reduction of their costs have made possible include Flexible Alternative Current Transmission Systems (FACTS) in the power systems. These devices have the ability to modify the parameters of an electrical network. These features make it an attractive strategy to reduce congestion in the power grid, increasing the transfer capability and providing greater controllability of power flows. However, the use of this technology remains limited due to the high investment cost and the absence of proper tools to quantify the economic benefits. Transmission investments under uncertainty have the option to postpone the investment or expand it at a later stage. Thus, within the evaluation should be contemplated the value of the flexibility of these options in the investment portfolio. This value is not possible to incorporate by means of the traditional approach of Net Present Value (NPV). In these cases the appropriate tool is based on the notion of Real Options (RO). This article applies the proposed methodology into the Paraguayan power system where are compared investment portfolios of traditional network reinforcements (transmission lines - TLs) with FACTS device investments. In addition, the investment alternatives in the transmission system are also significantly affected by non-random uncertainties that are present in emerging markets. These uncertainties are analyzed by criteria based on game theory against nature, in order to assess the robustness of the proposed alternatives. Finally, the study case shows that the investment performance is improved by strategically deferring the traditional alternatives during the maturity of the investment option while investing in FACTS, and transmission system could gradually adapt to uncertain electricity market.