The renewable energy adventure and a transition to a low-carbon South Africa

The renewable energy programme arising from IRP2010 is reviewed. It is an adventure based upon attempts to turn a scenario (which describes what might be possible) into a plan (which describes what might be practical). An assessment of the implementation of the plan thus far suggests that we will gain about 575MW of generation capacity at a cost of R75 billion, which will create challenges in the operation and maintenance of several new technologies and significantly increase the cost of electricity. One of the challenges will be to integrate the renewables into the existing national grid. Exploring these challenges reveals that, while the comparatively modest level of renewable energy from Rounds 1 and 2 will probably achieve carbon reductions, higher penetration carries the threat of actually increasing the carbon emissions. It is concluded that additional renewable capacity should be carefully monitored to ensure that we do not regress.