Modeling diffusion of innovation with cellular automata

Due to the lack of individual-level data, CA models that are based on individual-level theory are difficult to be validated quantitatively. In this paper, we present an approach by which we can derive the parameters of CA model from aggregate-level data so that the presented model can be used for the prediction of Internet users´ quantity in the future. The result of simulation suggests that the forecasting precision of the presented model is nearly equal to the aggregate-level model (Bass model). Moreover, this model can reproduce the pattern of Internet diffusion in the aggregate-level by the interacting of individual level units, which could not be educed by the Bass model.