Probabilistic framework for assessment of bilateral transactions in a competitive environment

Author

Rodrigues, A.B. ; Da Silva, M. G a

Author_Institution

Electr. Eng. Dept., Fed. Univ. of Maranhao, Brazil

Volume

1

fYear

2001

fDate

2001

Abstract

This paper has as an objective to assess the feasibility of bilateral transactions using probabilistic methods to include uncertainties associated with peak load forecasting and component´s outage. The scenarios originated from these uncertainties are generated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The bilateral transactions feasibility is assessed for each generated state using linear optimization based in primal-dual interior-point method. The sample of system states is used to obtain the probability distributions and the expected value associated with a bilateral transaction. Case studies with IEEE Reliability Test System-1996 are presented and discussed

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; electricity supply industry; load forecasting; power system planning; probability; IEEE Reliability Test System-1996; Monte Carlo simulation; bilateral transactions; component outage; expected value; linear optimization; peak load forecasting; power system planning; primal-dual interior-point method; probabilistic methods; probability distributions; system states samples; uncertainties; Hydraulic turbines; Power generation economics; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Power system security; Power systems; Uncertainty; Wind energy generation; Wind power generation; Wind turbines;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Tech Proceedings, 2001 IEEE Porto

Conference_Location

Porto

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7139-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PTC.2001.964619

Filename

964619