Medium-term electricity price forecasting

Medium-term price forecasting plays an important role in electricity markets. Obtaining reasonably accurate medium-term electricity price predictions is critical in many applications, such as maintenance scheduling, generation expansion planning, and bilateral contracting. Medium-term price forecasting is a complex task because of the long forecasting horizon, dependence of medium-term electricity prices to various variables, and limited availability of explanatory data. In this paper, different aspects of a medium-term electricity price forecasting are discussed, and several data-driven 12-month-ahead approaches are developed. The presented approaches are applied to Nord Pool and the Ontario electricity market to examine their performance and effectiveness.