Uncertainty propagation of Earthquake Loss Estimation System on the early seismic damage evaluation

On May 12, 2008, a major earthquake occurred in Sichuan China, which the earthquake calculated to be at the of Micron Log 8.0; caused nearly 70,000 dead, 18,830 were missing, 370,000 injuries, and over 15,000,000 under emergency evacuation and in an immediate demand for shelters. Taiwan, on the other hand, also had been through a major earthquake disaster - Chi-Chi Earthquake. Therefore, to understand clearly earthquake evaluation can help to deal with the disaster in the early stage, assists the decision-maker to acknowledge the level of severity once an earthquake occurs, and is also a guideline for a prompt and accurate decision-making. This article applies the ldquoNational Center for Research on Earthquake Engineeringrdquo of ldquoTaiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System-TELESrdquo as the simulation tool; TELES mainly uses ldquoMapInfordquo to present the condition of the disaster. And, cites 1999 ML 7.3 Chi-Chi Earthquake (caused a great number of casualties in Taiwan) and 2008 ML 6.8 Lanyu Earthquake (the biggest earthquake occurred in this year), using these two citations for the evaluation on the scale of an earthquake. Furthermore, this article also applies the Monte Carlo simulation to implement TELES for the indefinite analysis evaluation on the number of casualties. This is to understand the precaution in the early stage of an earthquake, which adopts TELES as a simulation tool on the number of casualties in accordance with the number of hospital bed in Taipei. Using the above all to study earthquake precaution and uncertainty analysis on the number of hospital bed, in support and assist the decision-maker to provide the accurate and prompt decision when disaster occurs.