Load reliability analysis using ARMA wind speed modeling

Author

Bizrah, Asad F. ; AlMuhaini, Mohammad M.

Author_Institution

Electr. Eng. Dept., King Fahd Univ. of Pet. & Miner., Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

fYear

2015

fDate

1-4 Feb. 2015

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

Due to the continuous increase in power demand and fast technological improvements and developments, the future of power systems is expected to be a challenging issue. The integration of new sources and technologies are needed to satisfy the utility requests and to decrease the use of fossil fuel sources. One of the main challenging issues in integrating wind power sources is how to forecast the long-term wind speed and study its impact on the reliability of the load. In this paper, the Auto-Regression and Moving Average (ARMA) model is used to forecast the wind speed for Dhahran area in Saudi Arabia. Then, the wind power is simulated using the speed-power curve. Finally, the impact of the forecasted wind power on the reliability of residential, commercial, and industrial loads is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; autoregressive moving average processes; power system reliability; wind power; ARMA wind speed modeling; Monte Carlo simulation; Saudi Arabia; autoregression and moving average model; fossil fuel sources use decrement; load reliability analysis; long-term wind speed forecasting; speed-power curve; wind power sources integrating; Correlation; Power system reliability; Predictive models; Reliability; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Wind speed; ARMA; forecasting; reliability; wind power; wind speed;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

GCC Conference and Exhibition (GCCCE), 2015 IEEE 8th

Conference_Location

Muscat

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IEEEGCC.2015.7060086

Filename

7060086