Optimal sizing stand-alone PV systems based on the observed extremes over a threshold

Most researches in this field only used the solar data in the period of a typical day or a chosen year to do the optimal sizing of a PV system. It is not realistic for assuming every day or every year having the same weather conditions. This paper proposes a novel sizing procedure based on the long-term trend of the observed extremes of solar radiation. Because the long-term behavior of the specific weather is considered, the proposed results are more confident in the future. Since sizing for a photovoltaic (PV) system is an important area in the application of solar energy, the theoretical aspects of sizing formulas and loss of power probability are addressed based on the weather conditions. Some interesting results are illustrated by some numerical examples.