Extending the Strategy Based Risk Model: Application to the validation process for R&D satellites

The validation between a research and developmental (R&D) satellite and its ground system is critical to ensuring the satellite success on orbit. However, the exact process for completing validation is not documented; the effort is frequently underfunded and accomplished ad hoc. This leads to debate regarding how to best maintain budget and schedule, while ensuring on-orbit success. This paper examines several years of readiness and on-orbit activities within the U.S. Air Force Space Development and Test Wing´s Research Development Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) Support Complex (RSC). Using this historical data together with subject matter experts, a validation process was first defined. Risks associated with this validation process were then analyzed using the Strategy Based Risk Model, evaluated based on the probability of occurrence and severity of impact. The validation process and associated costs were verified using the Delphi Method, obtaining consensus from a group of experts through a series of surveys. After compiling the results, we transformed the risk validation model into a simulation. A simulation is used to generate distributions of possible costs and risk outcomes and is analyzed in relation to impact events. Finally we applied the simulation to an on-going program, and gave it to two program managers to provide input on the usefulness of the simulation. This simulation will be distributed to program offices to support tailoring a validation plan based on their budget. The simulation will give decision makers insight into the expected risks and costs associated with the selected validation process, based on historical data and subject matter expertise.