Probabilistic Methods for Airspace Sector Congestion Prediction

Abstract-In order to improve the accuracy of airspace sector congestion prediction, the probabilistic method for sector congestion prediction has been proposed. By analyzing the uncertainty of air traffic, on the basis of theoretical analysis about sector demand probabilistic forecasting, the sector demand probabilistic forecasting method and the sector congestion prediction method based on the Monte Carlo simulation have been proposed. The methods are easy to implement. The simulation results show that the methods reduce the uncertainty of the previous demand forecasting and improve the accuracy of sector congestion prediction.