Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between China´s Fictitious Economy and Real Economy

The fictitious economy and real economy constitute a new pattern of economic system in the modern society. The theoretical model about interaction development between fictitious economy and real economy is deduced based on the theory of financial development and economic growth, and empirical analysis on the relationship between China´s fictitious economy and real economy using 2001 to 2008 monthly data is done based on the theoretical model and China´s development situation. The results show that the fictitious economy does not Granger cause real economy, the real economy also does not Granger cause fictitious economy, and there is at most one cointegrating equation between the fictitious economy and real economy. The results indicate that China´s fictitious economy departures from real economy in the short term, but they will have coordinated development in future. Some countermeasures and suggestions are given in order to promote the coordinated development and reduce the degree of departure according to the actual economic development.