An Algorithm for Evaluating Credibility of CNO Intelligence Information Using Bayesian Estimation

Intelligence activity is one of the most important activities during Computer Network Operation (CNO) command and decision-making process. Specially, evaluation of Intelligence Information credibility is the basic element of intelligence activity and process. This paper presents an algorithm evaluating credibility of intelligence information using Bayesian estimation AECIIB, applying to signal information depicting running status of CNO targets. AECIIB makes use of evaluators´ past experience and prior distribution established in advance based on historical information about the same or similar target, and inducts Bayesian estimation theory into the integration of priori knowledge and posterior knowledge to adjust distributed parameter of prior distribution, which can be used to calculate credibility of targets´ running status according to its probability of occurrence in prior distribution. In this paper, this algorithm is described in detail. The following experiment describes computation process of credibility evaluation in detail which proves that prior distribution can be changed along with new information and credibility of information is derived from the latest knowledge.