Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-Headed Geese (Anser Indicus) around Qinghai Lake Region with STELLA

Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) is one of important migratory goose´s species group around Qinghai lake region, the population dynamics of which is essential to decision-making of Bar-headed geese´s protection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was developed using STELLA modeling tool in Qinghai lake region. The parameters included in the model that describing mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigrating, emigrating and death of bar-headed goose had been set on the base of long time studied and observed data of bar-headed goose. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of periodic time of bar-headed goose stay in Qinghai lake. The next twenty-five years´ simulated results showed that trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. The model and simulated results about bar-headed goose population are reliable according of comparison with observed data from 2006 to 2008 and calibration of three controlled variables. This study suggests that the model is feasible for simulating population dynamics and the method of modeling bar-headed goose population provides with some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region.