Evaluation of wind power commitment risk in system operation

The environmental concerns associated with electricity generation and the increased public awareness of renewable energy resources have resulted in world wide and rapid growth of wind power installations. Wind power generation is uncertain, fluctuating and intermittent. It is a major challenge to maintain reliability while operating a power system with significant wind power penetration. The system operator is required to commit an appropriate amount of wind power in combination with other generating units to satisfy the forecast load with acceptable reliability in the lead time considered. Accurate wind power forecasting plays a vital role in estimating the wind power contribution in the specified lead time. The wind power generation in the next hour or next few hours depends upon the initial wind power at the wind site. There is a probability that the actual wind power will be less than the predicted value. This probability can be designated as wind power commitment risk. This paper presents a conditional probability approach to quantify the short term wind power commitment risk using a statistical time series model.