A preventive anticipation model for crisis management supply chain

In the military, agile and robust military supply chains are key in providing timely responses to support operations in theatre. Supply during peacetime can be managed by proactive logistics plans and classic supply chain management techniques to guaranty the availability of required needs. However, in case of perturbations (time of war, natural disasters...) the need for support increases dramatically and logistics plans need to be adjusted rapidly. To do that, we propose to use anticipation mechanisms. An anticipator uses a world model to construct future predictions about the supply chain and checks whether an undesirable state may be reached. If it is the case, the anticipator adapts his behavior to avoid the actions responsible of this state. In this paper, we focus on the use of anticipation in multi-agent coordination for military logistic planning. We propose de formalize preventive anticipation in the context of a Crisis Management Supply Chain (CMSC).