Substitution Effect Evaluation of Tourism Products Based on Multi-level Grey Theory

Substitution effect of tourism product is the phenomenon that some tourism products substitute each others because of their similar value and utility. With the goal to appraise the substitution effect of tourism product quantitatively, the author utilizes the multi-level grey theory which is the synthesis of grey correlation theories and group-decision analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The author also carries out the demonstration study of Wuling and Red Stone Forest, which indicates: there is certain substitution effect between the geological tourism resources groups of Wuling and Red Stone Forest, but Wuling silicarenite resources group has no sufficiently strong substitution effect for Red Stone Forest, so the Wuling Geological tourism resources group has the shielding effect on the Red Stone Forest. Through demonstration study, it is confirmed that application of multi-level grey theory in appraising quantitatively the substitution effect of tourism product is objective and credible, avoiding the disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process. This method provides a feasible quantitative analysis tool for the substitution effect appraisal with small sample and poor information.