Prediction of Series Criminals: An Approach Based on Modeling

In our model, firstly, we predict the residence of the offender based on the locations of the last crime scenes with three methods (distance analysis: the location that has the shortest distance to each crime site, circle fitting, probability theory), secondly, we predict the time of the next crime based on previous data with the method of fitting a straight line, next, we predict the location of the next crime based on the locations of the last crime scenes and the time predicted in the second step with the method of weighted average, finally, we generate a predicted location based on the three predicted locations with the method of weighted average.