Predictive assessment of power continuity indicators

The subject addressed in the paper is the predictive assessment of power continuity (PC) indicators (TIEPI, SAIDI, SAIFI) having as goal the estimation of investment needed to accomplish the intervals established by the Regulator to the DSO. The focus is on understanding the behaviour of power continuity indicators, breaking apart their drivers and using them to forecast future evolution. In the paper is analyzed the indicator TIEPI. The question is addressed creating a model based on historical data, where distribution network natural aging, past investment and weather influence are taken into account. Following this analysis two important outcomes are brought to consideration. The first is that creating a forecast PC model the DSO could improve its knowledge about the impact of each driver in their results and even verify in some points how a management strategic option (technology, reallocation of human resources, ...) affected them. The second is that being the historical data vital to such a model reveal what real matter, is critical a culture of formal events registration where the wasted time characterizing an event is understood also as an investment that will enable proper future investment decisions.