Forecasting Movie-Going Behavior Based on Online Pre-Release WOM and Opening Strength

There is little debate as to whether the high financial staked release of new movie is a risk venture with alarming failure rate. The prerelease prediction of movie-going behavior is crucial and considered a challenging task. To resolve above issue, we investigate into factors which influence innovation and imitation coefficients in Bass New Product Diffusion Model. Empirical evidences from American motion picture industry testify that online prerelease word-of-mouth (volume dimension) and opening strength (scheduled screens of a movie coming soon at opening day) could explain and predict audience´s likelihood of movie-going. This conclusion could assist practitioners by identifying indicators of potential success and proposing prerelease demand forecast to guide decision making on new movie release strategy.