Modeling effectiveness of GM mosquito release

A recent highly controversial mosquito control experiment had been conducted in Malaysia. The experiment was designed to assess the effectiveness of reducing mosquito population by releasing genetically modified (GM) male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes into a small inland district of Bentong in Pahang to outcompete the wild male mosquitoes. The compiled relevant data from the Grand Cayman experiments in 2009/2010 is used to develop and calibrate a numerical simulation model for assessing the effectiveness of releasing GM mosquito in controlling dengue mosquito population in the Grand Cayman. Simulation results indicate that releasing GM mosquitoes is not economically feasible in controlling wild A. aegypti population for three reasons. First, meaningful reduction of wild mosquito population is possible only if large one-off initial flooding ratio exceeding 10 transgenic males/wild male is applied. Second, continuous GM mosquito releases at the flooding rate exceeding 1 transgenic male for every 10 wild male per day must be maintained over an infinite time horizon in order to sustain low wild mosquito population. Third, the GM males must be released at many locations separated by only a few hundred meters to achieve meaningful results. The economic and logistic cost implication is exorbitant. Major difficulty remains to be resolved. In particular, in-depth cost-benefit analysis on this control program is essential to ensure long-term institutional and social support.