A mid-long term load forecasting model based on improved grey theory

Electric power system load forecasting plays an important role in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has great influence on the operation, controlling and planning of electric power system. Grey forecasting model is suitable for load forecasting, because its principle is simple and calculation is convenient in small sample. But there are many limitations. In this paper, a new model for middle and long term load was developed. The proposed approach has been verified by the the historical data of power consumption from 1999 to 2005 in Beijing, and the experimental results show the proposed model has obvious advantages and has comparatively higher prediction accuracy than the traditional grey prediction model.