Estimating the likelihood of success in departure management strategies during convective weather

• Traffic managers have developed several departure management tactics to keep weather impacted airspace open • Use of existing tools to plan for forecast weather impacts require manager judgment to hedge significant uncertainty • Outcome metrics for proactive reroute decisions based on automation are being developed to evaluate the likelihood of success for different strategies given forecast uncertainty • Both the potential cost of lost capacity and benefit of proactive weather avoidance must be considered in concepts of operations and planning horizons