Research on social risk early warning in overseas projects of oil companies

Author

Chen, Yan ; Li, Zhixiang

Author_Institution

Sch. of Manage. & Econ., Beijing Inst. of Technol., Beijing, China

fYear

2011

fDate

27-29 June 2011

Firstpage

3502

Lastpage

3505

Abstract

Aiming to the problems of social risk in overseas projects, this paper established social risk early warning model. Social risk earning warning index system was divided into five types of " political risks", "economic risks", "cultural risks", "social risks", "force majeure", including 5 primary indicators, 13 secondary indicators, and 31 observable indicators. The research selected "AHP-Entropy Method" as portfolio weighting method to evaluate the indicators and artificial neural network to build the social risk early warning model. At last the model was tested with 24 sample case. Risk warning model can identify risk, so that enterprises can effectively avoid risks, reduce losses.

Keywords

alarm systems; decision making; economic indicators; entropy; neural nets; petroleum industry; risk analysis; AHP-entropy method; artificial neural network; cultural risk; economic risk; oil companies; overseas projects; political risk; portfolio weighting method; risk identification; social risk early warning index system; social risk early warning model; Artificial neural networks; Economics; Educational institutions; Entropy; Monitoring; Petroleum; Portfolios; AHP method; artificial neural network; entropy method; social risk early warning;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Computer Science and Service System (CSSS), 2011 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Nanjing

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-9762-1

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/CSSS.2011.5972096

Filename

5972096