Parameter evaluation for extended Markov models applied to condition- and reliability-centered maintenance planning strategies

Author

Theil, G.

Author_Institution

Inst. fur Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft, Tech. Univ. Wien

fYear

2006

fDate

11-15 June 2006

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

For reliability-centered maintenance planning a three-stage Markov model for outage and maintenance is proposed. In this model system degradation is represented by a chain of wear-out states and an individual outage and maintenance rate for each wear-out state. The properties of the model and the sensitivity of its output with respect to parameter variations are demonstrated by mathematical formulas and by sensitivity analysis. A method for model parameter estimation and its application to cycle-time distributions of 220/380 kV transformers and life-time distributions of 20 kV wood masts is presented

Keywords

Markov processes; maintenance engineering; planning; power transformers; sensitivity analysis; 20 kV; 220 kV; 380 kV; cycle-time distributions; life-time distributions; parameter estimation; power system reliability; reliability-centered maintenance planning; risk analysis; sensitivity analysis; three-stage Markov model; transformers; wear-out states; wood masts; Degradation; Frequency; Maintenance; Mathematical model; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Predictive models; Sensitivity analysis; Strategic planning; Maintenance planning; Markov processes; power system reliability; reliability modeling; risk analysis;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on

Conference_Location

Stockholm

Print_ISBN

978-91-7178-585-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360310

Filename

4202322