Study on the methodology of short-term load forecasting considering the accumulation effect of temperature

The short-term load is nonlinear, and the change of it is influenced by various factors. Be one of them, the temperature is considered the main influencing factor. Not only the temperature of the day to be forecasted take a great influence on the load, but also the temperature of the previous days does. Especially in summer, the influence of the continuous high temperature on the load is different from the single high temperature. It can be seen as an embodiment of the accumulation effect of temperature. The historical load in summer and influencing factor of weather in Zhengzhou city are analyzed mainly in this paper, and then puts forward a short-term load forecasting methodology considering the accumulation effect of temperature in summer on this basis. Not only consider the day-type, precipitation, temperature, and other related factors, but also account into the effect of temperature of the other day in the case of continuous high temperatures. By virtue of the tool of ANN, we set up every single forecast model of total 48 points of daily load. It can be proved that this methodology can reflects the effect of continuous high temperature by the analysis of the actual load forecasting for Zhengzhou city in Central China, and get a approving forecast precision in the case of load fluctuating greatly in summer.