Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Grey Model and Correction System

Author

Yun Lu ; Xin Lin

Author_Institution

Sch. of Electr. Eng., Shenyang Univ. of Technol.

fYear

2005

fDate

2005

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

A novel short-term forecasting method is presented on the basis of GM (1,1) model and the application on the correcting latest historical load data in this paper. And the traditional input method of the historical data has been improved, that is, the difference value (D-value) of the same type of load data with same instant for the adjacent two days has been regarded as input sampling sequence, and the class ratio out of the feasible has been processed using the method of square root. Moreover, the relative factors that influencing load changes has been taken into consideration, and the latest historical load data has been employed to correct the forecasting value, for improving the precision of the forecasting. The efficiency of the forecasting precision of the proposed method has been verified by the demonstrated example

Keywords

differential equations; error correction; load forecasting; mean square error methods; error correction system; forecasting precision; grey differential equation model; historical load data; input sampling sequence; method of square root; short-term load forecasting method; Difference equations; Differential equations; Load forecasting; Power system analysis computing; Power system modeling; Power system security; Predictive models; Sampling methods; Technology forecasting; Water heating; Data processing; difference equation; error correction; history; load forecasting; matrix inversion; modeling; parameter estimation; power systems; sequences;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific, 2005 IEEE/PES

Conference_Location

Dalian

Print_ISBN

0-7803-9114-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/TDC.2005.1546954

Filename

1546954