• DocumentCode
    2637058
  • Title

    An AI-Agent-Based Trapezoidal Fuzzy Ensemble Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Prediction

  • Author

    Yu, Lean ; Wang, Shouyang ; Wen, Bo ; Lai, Kin Keung

  • Author_Institution
    Bo Wen Inst. of Syst. Sci., Acad. of Math. & Syst. Sci., Beijing
  • fYear
    2008
  • fDate
    18-20 June 2008
  • Firstpage
    327
  • Lastpage
    327
  • Abstract
    In this study, a Al-agent-based trapezoidal fuzzy ensemble forecasting model is proposed for crude oil price prediction. In the proposed ensemble model, some single AI models are first used as predictors for crude oil price prediction. Then these single prediction results produced by the single Al-based predictors are fuzzified into some fuzzy prediction representations. Subsequently, these fuzzified representations are fused into a fuzzy consensus, i.e., aggregated fuzzy prediction. Finally, the aggregated prediction is defuzzified into a crisp value as the final prediction results. For testing purposes, two typical crude oil price prediction experiments are presented.
  • Keywords
    artificial intelligence; crude oil; forecasting theory; fuzzy set theory; prediction theory; pricing; artificial intelligent agent; crude oil price prediction; fuzzy prediction representations; trapezoidal fuzzy ensemble forecasting model; Artificial intelligence; Artificial neural networks; Demand forecasting; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Fuzzy systems; Mathematical model; Petroleum; Predictive models; Support vector machines;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Innovative Computing Information and Control, 2008. ICICIC '08. 3rd International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Dalian, Liaoning
  • Print_ISBN
    978-0-7695-3161-8
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-0-7695-3161-8
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ICICIC.2008.129
  • Filename
    4603516