Temporal-Relational Classifiers for Prediction in Evolving Domains

Many relational domains contain temporal information and dynamics that are important to model (e.g., social networks, protein networks). However, past work in relational learning has focused primarily on modeling static "snapshots" of the data and has largely ignored the temporal dimension of these data. In this work, we extend relational techniques to temporally-evolving domains and outline a representational framework that is capable of modeling both temporal and relational dependencies in the data. We develop efficient learning and inference techniques within the framework by considering a restricted set of temporal-relational dependencies and using parameter-tying methods to generalize across relationships and entities. More specifically, we model dynamic relational data with a two-phase process, first summarizing the temporal-relational information with kernel smoothing, and then moderating attribute dependencies with the summarized relational information. We develop a number of novel temporal-relational models using the framework and then show that the current approaches to modeling static relational data are special cases within the framework. We compare the new models to the competing static relational methods on three real-world datasets and show that the temporal-relational models consistently outperform the relational models that ignore temporal information - achieving significant reductions in error ranging from 15% to 70%.