The Application of Fuzzy Decision-Making in the Solving of Petroleum and Petrochemical Accident Probability

There are many uncertain factors which may affect petroleum and petrochemical accidents. In order to solve the problem that petroleum and petrochemical accident probability is hard to be estimated, fuzzy decision-making is introduced to the process of probability solving by building a fault tree. The fuzzy numbers which represent expert opinions are translated into Fuzzy Possibility Scores by using gravity algorithm. And the expert weights are considered to amend the formula. Through the establishment of different Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process model and the using of fuzzy complementary judgement matrix, the weights of experts and basic cases are determined. In addition, the compatibility and consistency of fuzzy complementary judgement matrix are tested respectively to ensure the reliability of expert decision-making. This paper takes tank leak accident for example to illustrate the application of fuzzy decision-making in calculating probability and error interval and to prove the feasibility of such model in solving petroleum and petrochemical accident probability.